The expectation of increased production by OPEC+ is weighing on oil prices.

Crude oil prices continued to decline in the Asian trading session on ArbitrageFriday, maintaining the week's downward trend. As the market reassesses the outlook for global oil supply, concerns about oversupply have resurfaced, primarily due to the possibility of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) increasing production at next month's meeting, as well as the impending resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement talks.

As of 09:36 Beijing time on May 23 (21:36 EST), international crude markets both fell. The Brent crude futures for July delivery dropped 0.5% to $64.11 a barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.5%, reaching $60.92 a barrel. Both major benchmark contracts are set to record a decline of about 2% this week.

OPEC+ Production Increase Expectations Weigh on Market

The market's focus is on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 1. According to informed representatives quoted by Reuters, the organization is considering a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, although a final decision has yet to be made. ING noted in its latest report that this trend toward increased production indicates a shift from OPEC+'s strategy of "price protection" towards "market share protection".

In fact, since May this year, OPEC+ has gradually eased the previous production cuts, increasing market supply. This move was initially intended to align with demand growth driven by the global economic recovery, but current data show that the rise in inventories has yet to be alleviated.

Unexpected Increase in U.S. Inventories Intensifies Bearish Sentiment

Data released this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending May 16. Earlier, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an inventory increase of 2.5 million barrels. These figures have heightened concerns about supply-demand imbalances and contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices this week.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks in Limbo, Oil Market on Edge

Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the upcoming fifth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, set to take place on May 23 in Rome, Italy. Oman will continue to mediate, with the focus on Iran's uranium enrichment activities. The U.S. insists on a complete halt to enrichment, while Iran emphasizes its claim of "peaceful use".

Should the talks make progress and lead to the U.S. easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the market could see another wave of increased supply. Analysts believe this potential variable may act as a "black swan" for the oil market, amplifying price volatility.

Summary

With OPEC+ potentially increasing production again, U.S. crude inventories continuing to rise, and the possibility of Iranian oil re-entering the market, the global oil market faces triple pressures. Although the short-term decline in oil prices is relatively mild, medium-term trends remain uncertain, and market sentiment will depend more on the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting and the progress of nuclear talks.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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